Wanted: A Few Good Defensemen — The Sharks' Offseason Blueprint for the Blue Line
- HWH
- 1 hour ago
- 12 min read
Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images
Repeatedly on the SJHN podcast we have been asked about how the Sharks are going to address the backend this offseason.
For the unaware, the Sharks' current defense, subtracting some up and comers and unsigned players, looks like this for next year:
Dmitry Orlov | XXX |
Sam Dickinson | XXX |
XXX | XXX |
XXX | XXX |
I'm going to put forth a plan here to get from that to something playoff worthy. Let's start with the draft and work out from there.
The Draft Candidates
I'm going to base the breakdown on the two picks in the first round that the Sharks have with a ton of caveats up front. #1. We only have a ~87% chance to pick 9/10, we could move up to #1, #2, #3 or down to #11.
Let's just assume the Sharks keep the pick and also pick at #9/10 for ease of discussion. Let's also assume for what ever reason the Sharks don't move their other first rounder AND Edmonton loses their first round series. That gives the Sharks the #20 overall. Here are some expected defensemen in those two buckets (roughly):
I believe at least one of the first group of D will be available. The surging performances of Tynan Lawrence at the U18s, Caleb Malhotra in the OHL playoffs, and a lack of center depth in this draft means even a player like Viggo Bjorck has a chance to go top 10, pushing a defender or two back. I think if I had to guess who could be available it would be PROBABLY Smits given he's a lefty, or Rudolph given some engagement/defensive concerns. That being said, Sam Dickinson falling to the Sharks in 2024 was also unexpected, as most had him penciled top 6 or so pre-draft. Could Carels or Reid or Verhoeff fall? Possibly. But let's talk about Smits and Rudolph.
Although the Sharks don't have many right handed D ready for NHL action, they also don't have much behind Sam Dickinson and Luca Cagnoni as lefties either. In my opinion Smits may be the most NHL-ready defender in the draft. He's aggressive, physical, and engaged every shift. He's pushing play to get the puck back on retrievals and transition to offense. He's got a cannon shot that he can get on net from range. He reminds me of what the Sharks have been trying to get out of Shakir Mukhamadullin for a couple years now, except far, far more advanced at his age. I think he's a top four modern day two-way defender on a contender. Does he have enough offensive talent to play top line? We'll see, but if he's available here, he's an easy pick for me to shore up the pipeline. Dickinson and Smits can make up two of the top four D for a future Sharks squad.
Rudolph has a divisive play style. A true powerplay quarterback with vision from the point that few can match from this class. He's got an ease of play offensively, reminding me a bit of Parekh in his draft year, and drawing comparison to Evan Bouchard in the NHL. He's a stick first defender that has some issues with utilizing his larger frame in puck retrieval. The WHL at a whole wasn't a difficult league to get pucks back before it lost a ton of talent to the NCAA. It may just never be his strength. I wrote a few years back about Lukas Dragicevic in the 2023 draft and his offensive talents, but has reservations about his defensive/retrieval game. Although Rudolph is a far better skater and thinks the game defensively better than Dragicevic, I worry that this similar style of passive defending and so-so retrievals may mean that this part of his game could take some time to develop before he's plopped into an NHL lineup. While he's a high-upside pick, I would follow up this pick with a rock-solid defender at #20.
So who have I got my eye on at pick #20? Well we've got a few options that could pair with the above two, and could be realistically available.
Gustafsson has an excellent mind for defending the rush, retreiving in the corners and using his speed to kill plays. I enjoy watching his style of play in the defensive zone so much that even with middling numbers offensively and limited SHL time this season, he's a top 20 pick in this class in my eyes. He recovers so well to sound defensive positions when the play breaks down, always scanning for netfront threats and cross-ice plays. He's a great skater with and without the puck, although he could use his feet more to escape pressure. I think the biggest issue I have with seeing him as a pick is just where the Sharks are going to land on draft day. This may be too far out at 20 for him to be available, given the drop off of top-end D after the above 5, and lack of true game changers on offense after the top 16 or so. I have a feeling he's scooped up before the Sharks make him their pick. He would pair excellently with Rudolph though, and may be a bit redundant if they picked Smits.
I'm much, much higher on Lin's defense than his offense. I think he has the skills to contribute offensively but I don't think enough to get him substantial powerplay time in the NHL. His defensive positioning is among the best in the class in my eyes though. He's a workhorse and although he has a smaller frame, is an excellent retriever, using his body to separate his man from the puck. I think he's a great second pick after someone like Rudolph given he feels a bit safer, or behind Smits to balance the handedness. In my opinion despite his size I don't think the bust potential isn't all that high. He can move, think and defend at a high level, and he'll have enough two-way potential to keep earning time.
If the Sharks miss out on a high-end offensive contributor from the back-end at #9, Villeneueve should be the play at #20. A Smits and Villeneuve draft would do wonders to transform the identity of the defense for the Sharks in the future if they both hit their ceiling. There's a risk here. He's not a physical defender. Sharks fans know all too well what a gifted offensive star like Ryan Merkley turned into once he had to play physical. Villeneuve looks like he took the Lane and Cole Hutson tape home with him every night after practice. He's constantly moving, scanning and switching the flow of play up to create mismatches offensively. Fluid passing, handling and skating combine on certain plays to create special, special moments in the Q. I do want to preface that it is the Q though. The goaltending and the defense can be much weaker and less punishing. There's a chance that a team might use their first rounder on him, but I suspect it'll only be a team with multiple firsts like the Sharks or Blues. The roadmap is set for him to be a contributing NHL powerplay specialist, the issue is that path is narrow. He'll need to work on his physical play and grind through contact more before he's ready.
Hard to foresee a tall right-handed defender who can skate decently well drop to 20, but if he does, he's a perfect balance to a riskier pick like Rudolph up top. A smart transition defender, he has a knack for shutting down rushes and getting the puck up ice. I don't think he's going to develop some great offensive game, but a reliable two-way defender as your second pick of the draft isn't too shabby. Less exciting than the names above for sure, but I like his projection given his younger birthday, size and base defending. He reminds me of friend of the podcast Jason Demers when he was playing.
So let's say the Sharks come away with (if they keep the pick which IMO they should if Edmonton loses in the first round):
Rudolph/Piiparinen
Rudolph/Lin
Rudolph/Gustafsson
Smits/Villeneuve
Smits/Lin
Choose your favorite, they all represent a different mix of size, two-way play, offensive upside, defensive certainty, handedness. Mine would be Smits and Villeneuve of the above, but all have pluses and minuses. I do think that the potential is there for one or both defenders chosen to be foundational for a future Sharks defense. That alone is huge for this discussion of how to build a contender on the backend.
The Trade Candidates
Pipe Dreams
Adam Fox
Zach Werenski
Simon Nemec
Roman Josi
Realistic Top 4 Options
Morgan Rielly
Filip Hronek
Braden Schneider
Adam Pelech/Ryan Pulock
Darnell Nurse
Colton Parayko
Dougie Hamilton
Middle/Bottom Pair/Other
Michael Kesselring
Rasmus Ristolainen
Tyler Tucker
Sam Girard
Pipe Dreams
The pipe dreams are exactly that. It's not likely the Sharks acquire them, but for one reason or another their names have been bandied about as on the market, Sharks targets, or some combination of the two.
I would aggressively go after Fox or Werenski. I'd move significant assets, both players on the team and futures, for either if they were interested in a long-term future with the Sharks. There's a ton of ifs there though, and their selling teams may never trade them, or may wait until their UFA seasons, attempting negotiations. It's rare for a Quinn Hughes trade to happen with term remaining. Relationships have to sour pretty significantly, like they did in Vancouver. There's no indication Fox or Werenski are there yet, but if some smoke starts to develop, Sharks should be on the phone. They're the types you're trying to get by drafting, but could elevate the Sharks to a future cup contender.
Josi and Nemec are at two opposite ends of their careers, but I'd offer similar packages for either (and substantially less than Werenski or Fox).
Josi, while 35, still appears to have plenty left in the tank and two years left on his deal. Nashville failed to make the playoffs again, despite a late push. With Trotz leaving, does a new GM consider trading the captain? Really tough to say, although Pierre Lebrun hints at it here:
I'd argue that if he's interested and the Sharks don't have to give up more than picks and prospects, that he's a great fit to bridge this early stage of Celebrini's career. A rock-solid defender capable of anchoring a pairing, pushing play and eating minutes. Would he only be here for a few years? Sure, but it buys the Sharks time until they can sign or develop one, time that Celebrini and co. can make the playoffs and push the team ahead in the standings and in the eyes of future free agents.
Nemec continues to be in rumor after rumor about a trade. New Jersey wants a top 6 contributor, and the Sharks could try to configure a swap with one of their young players for him. I don't see it happening, because his profile doesn't get traded often, and it's hard to really say if he's going to transform this group like the other pipe dream guys will.
All in all, I think the Sharks could try to get one of these above, but it's not realistic to expect it. The next grouping is where the Sharks could make some hay.
Realistic Top Four Options
This is where I think the Sharks pick from. Hronek is probably the best acquisition for the Sharks here, but he does have an NMC and would take significant assets given his age and term. Vancouver, if they do decide to shop him though, would be looking for possibly more than the Sharks want to give.
This grouping however, I think if the Sharks wanted to get aggressive with their Edmonton pick (let's say if Edmonton pick falls to the late 20s) they could land one of them and fill in a top 4 spot for a long time. Braden Schneider seems to be the rumored name out there for the Sharks and at just 24 years old, could make sense to eat minutes on a future middle pair.
Rielly/Nurse/Hamilton could be interesting, but I personally would only go after them if they are at a discount given their age and relative lack of success on playoff teams. Pelech/Pulock I've put together as options as it would seem a bit extreme for the Islanders to trade both. They may not be interested in trading either, but as Schaefer continues to rise, he's going to eat a lot of their minutes. The right deal might nudge them to move one to recoup some assets and continue the retool.
Lastly Colton Parayko was about to be traded for Radim Mrtka and a late first. Could the Sharks match that offer? Not exactly, but then again Parayko getting to choose his destination and axing the trade to Buffalo may lower that price in the summer if the Blues are still trying to shop him.
Going to say if Edmonton goes on a deep run and the pick is not top 20, I say the Sharks should offer the Edmonton first, the Colorado second, Mukhamadullin and Musty for Hronek at the draft. If that doesn't work, back it down to a first and Muk for Schneider. If that doesn't work, offer the late first plus a prospect for Pulock/Pelech/Rielly/Nurse/Hamilton.
Let's play the fun game and say the Sharks land Hronek. I think it's slightly more realistic than the Sharks landing the UFA prize Darren Raddysh, but we'll get there in a bit.
Other Trade Targets
Michael Kesselring, a favorite of Jason Demers who joins us on the podcast from time to time, has had a down year in Buffalo to say the least. After 29 points in his previous year with Utah, he was traded to Buffalo, often injured, and could only manage scratch minutes and 2 points. He's not currently playing for Buffalo in the playoffs. He is very likely available for a team willing to part with a pick for him given Buffalo has solidified their defense. An extra fourth probably gets it done. A great buy-low option that could rebound and move pucks for a defense that struggles with that.
Ristolainen and Girard have their flaws, but both shouldn't be terrible expensive to acquire. Girard may be a bit redundant/ill-advised however on a squad trying to ease in smaller prospects in Pohlkamp and Cagnoni. Ristolainen could be an interesting option if Philadelphia, like the Isles, wants to continue retooling around their younger prospects. He's playing big minutes for them, but hasn't been the most consistent player during his Philly tenure. He's on the last year of a 5.1M AAV contract starting next season, so an offseason trade could be in the cards.
Lastly Tyler Tucker is an interesting case. He's a physical defender who racked up plenty of hits and PIMs in a third pairing role for St. Louis. He's a good defender though, and he'll be approaching the last year of his deal before free agency at the age of 27. Does STL continue the retool and ship him out or try to resign a late bloomer to a longer deal. Just a name to think about.
Let's say we get Kesselring at the draft as well for a fourth and a C prospect.
Out of the draft and heading into our final segment, free agency, here's where the hypothetical Sharks D stands and their acquisition cost:
Dmitry Orlov | Filip Hronek (EDM First, COL 2nd, Mukhamadullin, Musty) |
Sam Dickinson | XXX |
Alberts Smits (#9 Overall) | Michael Kesselring (4th + Colton Roberts) |
XXX | XXX |
Free Agency
Long Shots
Darren Raddysh
Rasmus Andersson
Realistic
Tony Deangelo
Jacob Trouba
Logan Stanley
Nick Blankenburg
Ryan Shea
Troy Stecher
Vinny Desharnais
Victor Soderstrom
If the Sharks come out of free agency with Raddysh or Andersson, I'll eat a shoe. Not really, but Andersson has long been rumored (Frank Seravalli specifically has said this) to already have a framework of a deal in place for Vegas to keep him, and they always seem to keep the guys they acquire.
Raddysh is going to either stay in Tampa or sign a monster deal with a team wanting to get over the hump. The Sharks COULD offer him the type of money to attract him, but should they? In my opinion, if it's a long-term deal you're risking a lot of expensive Celebrini years if he regresses. If they swing and miss at the draft for whatever reason though, it would be a great backup plan to offer a high AAV, short term deal and see if he wants to go for it.
That being said, the realistic options are interesting. Trouba has had a bit of a resurgence in Anaheim, and if they go far, I wonder if he wants to stick around with that group rather than move again, given how resistant he was to moving before from NYR. The glaring 2nd pairing RD hole could use some physicality and veteran leadership.
Tony D is Tony D, and although it's interesting that he's available, I hope they steer clear given how this locker room is coming together.
Soderstrom/Blankenburg/Stecher could provide nice organizational depth if the prospects aren't ready. Desharnais may already be penciled into next year's roster as our 6/7 D, we'll have to see.
Let's say we get Stanley to solidify the bottom pair, and take a flyer on Ryan Shea, offering him a short term high cash contract after a career year in Pittsburgh.
Bringing it all together
Ryan Shea (5M x 2 years) | Filip Hronek (acquired for EDM 1st, COL 2nd, Mukhamadullin, Musty) |
Sam Dickinson | Dmitry Orlov |
Logan Stanley (4M x 4 years) | Vinny Desharnais (3.5M x 2 years) |
Alberts Smits (#9 Overall)/Eric Pohlkamp/Luca Cagnoni | Michael Kesselring (2M x 1 year) (acquired for 4th + Colton Roberts) |
The Sharks spend some picks, prospects and sign some expensive contracts to retool a defense that sorely needs it. Hronek immediately helps the powerplay, but leaves the option open for him to slide to a #2 guy in the future if a prospect develops as the lead guy. Stanley and Vinny provide some size and penalty killing while your smaller prospects trickle into the lineup. Shea is a stopgap option. If he doesn't work out, he's out when Smits develops into a top 4 guy.
The beauty of this plan though is that the acquisition cost isn't very high for the above defense, and it's a significantly improved defense over what the Sharks have been icing for years now. Throughout the year, whoever is ready for a look from Pohlkamp/Smits/Cagnoni can get significant ice time while Vinny or Kesselring sit. It leaves the option for the Sharks to roll 8 D and for one of them to make the team out of camp as well.
Let me know what you think in the comments! Who do you want from these candidates?
-HWH